Current news about the market is as follows: The historic date of the tender for Renewable Energy Resource Areas (YEKA) was delayed. Tender before March 7, 2019 at 12:00 as stated expiration date of the decision on 18 April 2019 in the last days of Bursa Agriculture and Rural Development Support Agency (ARDSI) entrepreneurs who take advantage of the grant, the exchange rate “has produced sunglasses electricity, Turkey ‘ energy imports bill increased by 1.4% to $ 3.9 billion compared to the same month of the previous year in December of last year.
The average market price per megawatt hour (MWh) for the day ahead electricity market was set at TL 223.53. Looking at the distribution of prices, the maximum price of the day is 325.58 TL / MWh between
Compared to the previous day, the average market clearing price increased by TL 14.93. When we look at the data of Finalized Daily Production Plan (KGUP), it is expected that natural gas will be 14%, lignite 15%, imported coal 20%, while renewable energy will be 38%, wind 9% and geothermal 3%. On the other hand, the increase in prices can be explained by the increase in consumption demand due to the weekdays and the expectation of increase in hydro power and wind power plants. The production-based Finalized Daily Production Plan (CGPC), planned for tomorrow, is given in the graph below.
Based on the Estimation Model * analysis, the average market clearing price is estimated as 260.91 TL / MWh and the average consumption is 35,116 MWh. The success rate of the model on the market clearing price is calculated as 68% per day, while the success rate for consumption ** is calculated as 95% per day. The daily average consumption values for hourly and estimated market clearing prices as well as the daily average consumption values that will take place on a weekly basis are given in the graphs below.
The average market clearing price for the day after tomorrow is estimated to be 203.99 TL / MWH. Accordingly, the maximum price of the day is 312.87 TL / MWh between 10:00 – 11:00 hours and the minimum price is 31.71 TL / MWh between 03:00 – 04:00 hours. Estimated average market clearance price at peak hours (17:00 – 22:00) can be calculated as 213.43 TL / MWh. Market exchange price forecasts with hourly rates are given in the graph below.
While the average Gas Reference Price (GRF) between 01.12.2018 – 31.01.2019 was determined as 1,550.48 TL / 1000 sm3 within the Organized Wholesale Natural Gas Sales Market (OTSP), the total amount of matched matches between the same dates was determined as 67,784 x1000 cm3. Daily Gas Reference Price (GRF) and Match Quantity data are included in the chart below.
* Estimation Model; It was developed in MATLAB software development platform using SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). Market exchange prices and actual consumption data are used daily in EPİAŞ Transparency Platform as input data within the model and all other used data. Please contact us to get detailed information about the model.
** Success Rate of Consumption; On the basis of weekly estimates made on consumption basis, since the report published on Sundays is not available, the success rate will be calculated on a daily basis and updated in the report.
Tümay Solak – Risk Yönetimi Uzmanı – tumay.solak@enerjigazetesi.ist