Kategori : ELECTRICITY ENERGY NEWS, ENERGY AGENDA NEWS - Tarih : 06 January 2019

Current news about the emerging market is as follows: Solar Energy Industry and Industry Association (GENSED) Secretary General Hakan Erkan said that 2023 targets in solar energy are to reach 15 GW. Fırat EDAŞ has taken care to carry out investment activities in Bingöl under all conditions. A statement on the application of the paid bag, which came into force on January 1, 2019 by the Plastic Industry Research and Development Foundation (PAGEV), was published. In 2018, the number of minus-priced days in the German electricity market decreased.

The average market exchange price per megawatt hour (MWh) for the day ahead electricity market was set at TL 244.34. Looking at the distribution of prices, the maximum price of the day 293 TL / MWh in the range of 18:00 – 19:00 hours, the minimum price of 110.01 TL / MWh in the range of 04:00 – 05:00 hours took place. In average hours (17:00 – 22:00), the average market clearing price can be calculated as 289.02 TL / MWh.

Compared to the previous day, the average market clearing price increased by 31.99 TL. When we look at the data of the Finalized Daily Production Plan (KGÜP), it is expected that the natural gas will be 23%, lignite 14%, imported coal 22%, while renewable energy is expected to produce 29%, wind 8% and geothermal 3%. On the other hand, the increase in prices can be explained by the increase in consumption demand due to weekdays and the expectation of increase in production in hydro power plants. Production based Finalized Daily Production Plan planned for tomorrow is shown in the graph below.

Based on the Estimation Model * analysis, the average market clearing price is estimated as 272.8 TL / MWh and the average consumption is estimated as 33,409 MWh. The success rate of the model on the market clearing price is calculated as 73% per day, while the success rate for consumption is calculated as 100% daily. Daily average consumption values for hourly and estimated market clearing prices as well as daily average consumption values that will take place on a weekly basis are given in the graphs below.

The average market clearing price for the day after tomorrow is estimated at TL 272.52 / MWH. Accordingly, the maximum price of the day is 319.87 TL / MWh between the hours of 18:00 – 19:00, the minimum price of 153.93 TL / MWh is expected to be between 04:00 – 05:00 hours. The estimated average market clearance price at peak hours (17:00 – 22:00) can be calculated as 305.56 TL / MWh. Market swap price estimates for hourly are given in the chart below.

While the average Gas Reference Price (GRF) for the Organized Wholesale Natural Gas Sales Market (OTSP) between 01.12.2018 and 04.01.2019 was determined as 1,596.58 TL / 1000 sm3, the total amount of matched matches between the same dates was determined as 13,982 x1000 sm3. The daily Gas Reference Price (GRF) and Match Quantity data are included in the chart below.

* Estimation Model; It was developed in MATLAB software development platform by using SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) which is a statistical estimation method. The daily published market clearing price and actual consumption data are used in EPİAŞ Transparency Platform as input data in the model and all other used data. Please contact us to get detailed information about the model.

** Success Rate of Consumption; On the basis of weekly estimates made on consumption basis, since the report published on Sundays is not yet available, the success rate will be calculated on a daily basis and updated in the report.

Tümay Solak – Risk Management Specialist – tumay.solak@enerjigazetesi.ist