Kategori : ELECTRICITY ENERGY NEWS, ENERGY AGENDA NEWS - Tarih : 23 December 2018
Current news about the emerging market is as follows: Raising the swap levels between Iran and Turkey, a joint committee for cooperation in renewable power plants and electricity market to be established, Israel announced can completely stop production of electricity from coal in 2030, Germany will allocate capacity is 875 MW for wind and solar, the European Union countries trucks and buses has agreed to reduce carbon emissions by 20 percent by 2030 compared to 2019.
The average market price per megawatt hour (MWh) for the day ahead electricity market was set at 228.69 TL. Looking at the distribution of prices, the maximum price of the day was 292.67 TL / MWh between the hours of 18:00 – 19:00, the minimum price was 120.2 TL / MWh between 03:00 – 04:00 hours. At peak hours (17:00 – 22:00) the average market clearing price can be calculated as 289.66 TL / MWh.
Compared to the previous day, the average market clearing price decreased by -33.04 TL. When we look at the data of the Finalized Daily Production Plan (KGUP), it is expected that the production of natural gas will be 21%, lignite 18%, imported coal will be 26%. On the other hand, the decrease in prices can be explained by the decrease in consumption demand due to the weekend and the expectation of increase in production in hydro power plants. Production based Finalized Daily Production Plan planned for tomorrow is shown in the graph below.
Based on the Estimation Model * analysis, the average market clearing price is 278.28 TL / MWh and the average consumption is estimated as 29,882 MWh. The success rate of the model on the market clearing price is calculated as 55% per day, while the success rate for consumption is calculated as 99% per day. Daily average consumption values for hourly and estimated market clearing prices as well as daily average consumption values that will take place on a weekly basis are given in the graphs below.
The average market clearing price for the day after tomorrow is estimated as 253.21 TL / MWH. Accordingly, the maximum price of the day is 306.8 TL / MWh between 20:00 – 21:00 hours, the minimum price is expected to be 99.73 TL / MWh between 04:00 – 05:00 hours. The estimated average market clearance price at peak hours (17:00 – 22:00) can be calculated as 290.35 TL / MWh. Market swap price estimates for hourly are given in the chart below.
While the average Gas Reference Price (GRF) between 01.12.2018 and 22.12.2018 was determined as 1,454.07 TL / 1000 sm3 in the Organized Wholesale Natural Gas Sales Market (OTSP), the total amount of matched matches between the same dates was determined as 72,820 x1000 sm3. The daily Gas Reference Price (GRF) and Match Quantity data are included in the chart below.
* Estimation Model; It was developed in MATLAB software development platform by using SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) which is a statistical estimation method. The daily published market clearing price and actual consumption data are used in EPİAŞ Transparency Platform as input data in the model and all other used data. Please contact us to get detailed information about the model.
** Success Rate of Consumption; On the basis of weekly estimates made on consumption basis, since the report published on Sundays is not yet available, the success rate will be calculated on a daily basis and updated in the report as of Tuesday.
Tümay Solak – Risk Management Specialist – tumay.solak@enerjigazetesi.ist
